Kalk,
First you try to minimize the % of MO fish found with cyanide determined by the IMA using CDT in PI (by using a three year average of 18% from 1998 to 2000). At least you got that average right for the 1st time. I have published data indicating it had increased from 8% in 1999 to 29% in 2000. The overall average for MO fish from 1996 to 2000 was 25% (just so you don't forget, despite my repeated postings).
I already stated that because there is no longer enforcement of Philippine laws tied to a CDT, that I believe that cyanide use has increased (not decreased as you claim) since 2000.
We tested more food fish because the food fish trade became of international concern, and we obtained funding from BFAR, McArthur Foundation, Packard Foundation, and US-AID to monitor that trade. The overall percentage with food fish for the presence of cyanide from 1996 to 2000 was 44% in PI (supporting to some extent your argument that cyanide use in the food fish trade is higher than with the MO trade).
I have previously posted data that demonstrates that marine fish die from a variety of causes including cyanide exposure, stress, and ammonia etc. The papers by Hall and Bellwood (1995) and Hanawa et al. (1998) demonstrated that the delayed mortality was compounded by exposure to cyanide. Hence, fish exposed to cyanide are more likely to die from stress. Hall and Bellwood (1995) found that the factors in combination (e.g., cyanide+stress, cyanide+starvation, stress+starvation, cyanide+stress+starvation) resulted in higher mortality. That being said it is clear that fish can die from each of the factors alone listed above. Many factors can act as "stressors" that increase catecholamine and glucose levels to cause a stress response in fish (like changes in temperature, salinity, or pH, being netted, being bagged and shipped, lack of cover in tanks etc). It is difficult to separate the factors to account for the percent mortality at the retail level for each factor separately or in the various combinations listed above. By the time they reach the retailer we can safely conclude that the causes of the mortality are the factors in combination.
Basically, I believe that your theory that the cyanided fish deline in frequency over the transport chain of custody is incorrect. There is a large pool of cyanide-caught fish, the % of cyanide-exposed fish does not decline over time. Some fish just take longer to die from cyanide and/or the other factors alone or in combination with cyanide.
Instead of harping about cyanide mortality at the retail level, you should be supporting efforts (like net-training) to stop the use of cyanide by the fishermen. I have also pointed out that the trade needs to also take steps to reduce stress during shipping, to neutralize the ammonium in the shipping bags (by adding compounds like Amquel), and to control bacterial proliferation during shipping (e.g., by adding nitrofurazone).
The drop in pH in the shipping bags appears to be stressing the fish. The trade needs to develop means to buffer the shipping water to eliminate the accumulation of carbonic acid in the shipping bags (formed by excretion of carbon dioxide by the fish). These are concrete things that collectors, exporters, and importers can do to help reduce the high mortality of MO fish at each step of the chain of custody.
It is irrelevant to me whether the % of cyanide captured fish sold to marine hobbyists is 5% or 25%. The damage to the reefs does not decline until the use of cyanide by the fishermen stops. I want the use of cyanide by the MO collectors and the food fish fisheries stopped everywhere cyanide is being used.
Either the MO trade takes steps to eliminate the problems (high mortality during collection and transport, and cyanide fishing) or you can expect that governments will take steps to ban the export and/or import of MO fish. The US Coral Reef Task Force has not gone away and neither has the IMA. Eventually, steps will be taken to deal with these problems.