OK, that worked.
I think it is fairly clear that while O2 and organics play a role in determining ORP, that neither is what is measured in seawater with an ORP electrode. I think it is almost certainly a set of redox active metals that impact ORP electrodes directly, and in seawater it is likely manganese and a few others (e.g., iron). For those that have not seen it, I discuss such issues in both simplified and highly detailed chemical terms here:
ORP and the Reef Aquarium
http://www.reefkeeping.com/issues/2003-12/rhf/feature/index.php
from it:
What Redox Reactions Control the ORP in Seawater and Marine Aquaria?
The nature of the redox reactions that control the ORP in seawater and marine aquaria is very complicated. It is not known exactly which chemical species control the ORP, and it is not an equilibrium situation, so all simple chemical equations will only be an approximation of what is taking place.
Certainly, a big part of ORP is driven by reactions involving oxygen (O2). Oxygen is a fairly strong oxidizing agent, since it can undergo the following reaction:
O2 + 4H+ + 4e- ?? 2H2O
In totally pure fresh water (pH 7), without contact with any atmospheric gases, the ORP is 202 mv at 25?C. If a normal amount of atmospheric oxygen (0.21 atmospheres) is allowed to come to equilibrium with that water, the ORP rises to 607 mv (535 mv at pH 8.2). So obviously the ORP has risen considerably due to the oxygen. [This value of 535 mv is also the same value expected in seawater if this redox reaction dominated.]
However, the effect of the exact concentration of O2 is not very great. At twice the concentration of O2, the ORP only rises to 540 mv at pH 8.2. It also only drops to 531 mv when the amount of O2 is halved (also at pH 8.2).
Why such a small dependence on the O2 concentration? There are actually two answers to that question, depending on what is really being asked.
Why does the ORP not change more when the concentration of oxygen is changed so much? The simple answer is that equilibrium ORP is just not very sensitive to small changes in the concentration of oxygen. After all, ORP only varies over about 1000 mv from the most oxidizing to the most reducing environments found in natural waters. But the oxygen concentration might vary by a factor of 1050 or more.
Keep in mind that ORP is logarithmic in the same sense that pH is logarithmic. If you double the [H+], pH only drops by about 0.3 pH units. In the same way, doubling the [O2] has only a fairly small effect on ORP.
Why does the measured ORP vary so much in aquaria? Does that imply that the concentration of oxygen is varying by huge amounts as ORP rises and falls? Those are very deep questions into the nature of ORP in aquaria. The answer boils down to the fact that ORP is not at equilibrium in aquaria. There are oxidizers (such as O2) and reducers (such as organics) present together. That alone tells us that the system is not at equilibrium. So we cannot assume that any equilibrium relationships between the concentrations of these species and ORP will necessarily hold true.
Since many species can potentially impact ORP in a reef aquarium, all that can be concluded from a change in ORP is that one or more of the redox species has changed concentration. For example, if the ratio of Fe+++ to Fe++ in solution suddenly doubled, then one would expect some rise in ORP. If these species were the only redox active species in solution, then the ORP would rise by 18 mv (the equation to derive this result is shown later).
However, since there may be other redox active species present, these other species will likely blunt, if not totally swamp, the effect from that change in iron. This effect is exactly analogous to adding acid or base to a solution. If it is unbuffered, a large change in pH will be observed. If it is buffered, the change is much smaller. So too with redox. If the iron were alone, a large ORP change (18 mv) would be seen. But with other redox species ready to buffer the ORP, the rise may be much smaller, or even undetectable.
The unfortunate circumstance with ORP, however, is that we do not have a good understanding of the redox active species in seawater and marine aquarium water. Consequently, unlike pH where buffering is readily understood, measured, and theoretically predicted, the effects of oxidizers and reducers on ORP is much harder to fully understand.
What redox active species can contribute most to ORP in marine aquaria? Table 2 lists some possibilities, and the relative importance of each may well vary between aquaria with different concentrations of the various species. Other redox active species in aquaria include arsenic, copper, lead, chromium, mercury, and selenium, among others. One can look up the relative oxidizing and reducing power of all of these under standard conditions to get a rough idea of which will control ORP in seawater and aquaria. However, many of these form complexes with other inorganic and organic materials in seawater, and such complexes can have very different redox properties than the bare ions. Also, how important they are to redox control depends entirely on how much of each is present.
Two of the primary contributors to ORP are going to be oxygen and organics. Since organics comprise a wide array of different species, it has proven impossible to say definitively what controls ORP in seawater. In the end, I expect that the ORP is kinetically controlled by a steady state of oxidation by oxygen and related species with the various organics in the aquarium. Some of the other species listed in Table 2 may also play important redox "buffering" roles.