John_Brandt":14gz5bkk said:
It's not the statistical difference that matters to me Mike, it's the apparent patterns of misrepresentation in Rubec's reports that is the point. Are you not seeing this?
No, I'm not seeing it because I have not seen the raw data, John.
For one, I am aware that no really good study has been done on the effects of cyanide on fish at all levels of the industry. In particular, there has been no study that has tried to quantify the effects of shipping/handling stress on fish that were net-caught vs. cyanide-caught.
In absence of these studies, all we have are an admittedly few sources of information, John. Peter Rubec's numbers are the best known, most oft-quoted, and are based on observations, anecdotes and personal communications.
I recognize this, and recognize that these numbers are not ideal.
In return, I would ask you the same question: Are you not seeing this?
I do not challenge them because I have nothing to base my challenge on.
You know I do not work in the industry, and that I know little about the fish market on the US side. (Even though I have to say I learned an awful lot at IMAC from these discussions from people like Steve, yourself, Rick Pruess, etc.)
From what I learned in the Philippines from the collectors themselves, and people like Ferdie and Marivi, the numbers that Peter talks about on the PI side of the chain do not seem outrageous. Some fish, when hit with cyanide, do not tolerate it at all, and very large percentages die immediately, with similarly large percentages dying after capture and before arrival at the exporters facility. Others seem to tolerate it better, and smaller numbers die all along the way.
Depending on what species were 'observed' during the study, you could get different numbers just based on these physiological differences in fish, John. Surely anyone could understand this point...
So, getting back to Peter and his numbers:
No, I do not believe he is guilty as you are suggesting of misrepresenting the numbers.
The problem in all of this is that none of us have any sort of real data that contradict the numbers on the PI side (which is all I am interested in talking about here). So all you or I can offer is our opinion, which is neither particularly well-informed, nor backed by any sort of data.
I am not ready to address Frank's mortality study until he tells me that he is done posting his data, and I can go through it carefully.
I feel drawing any sort of conclusions based on the limited amount of data put forth so far is quite premature. (Right, Kalkbreath?)
Regards.
Mike Kirda