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PeterIMA

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Part of the trouble with Kalk's questions is the fact that he usually asks multiple questions in the same posting, then provides unsubstantiated opinion. He also appears to be deliberately distorting the numbers that I and others have provided. I have provided replies to some questions, but do not intend to do analyses or research just to suit questions/allegations that are frivolous or derogatory.

As far as the CDT, the methods by which IMA did sampling and CDT testing were explained in the published paper. The sampling was conducted all over the Philippines from collectors at sea, from villages, from distribution sites (e.g., airports), and from export facilities. CDT testing was done at 5 regional laboratories and at the central Manila laboratory. Most samples were obtained by random sampling by species. Some fish were voluntarily submitted by law enforcement officials and by exporters. No fees were charged to the law enforcement agents that submitted samples (for prosecution purposes) or to exporters seeking to determine whether the fish they purchased from collectors or middlemen were tainted with cyanide or not.

In terms of the way I chose to summarize the test results, I realized that it was impossible to present the results in the paper at the species level (although I did tabulate that), or even the genus level because there were 973 species of aquarium fish and food fish in the database. Hence, I chose to summarize the percentages present or absent at the Family level. This makes for larger sample sizes and a better interpretation of the percentages derived from the numbers tested within each family. The numbers tested are important, so I tabulated those numbers. This can help the reader determine how reliable the percentages are.

Admittedly, the numbers of gobies tested is fairly low (79). But it still provides for a minimal sample (>30) that most statisticians find acceptable for this type of tabulation.

As far as how random sampling should be conducted, it is clearly unfeasible to sample a minimum of 30 specimens of every species when one is faced with sampling over 900 species. If damselfish represent say 43% by numbers it does not make sense to sample them in proportion to their abundance, while not sampling enough of the less prevalent species in other families (such as gobies). But, this appears to have occurred to some degree (I did not have any ability to influence the sampling when IMA conducted it). At present there is no sampling (random or otherwise) being conducted by BFAR staff. I have recommended to the MAC that future sampling should ensure that every fish or invertebrate family is sampled on a more equal basis. The random sampling should focus on getting a sample from each family present (random sampling of species within each family) whenever sampling occurs (in the field or at export facilities). This still will not allow very large sample sizes by species; but it will provide a better overview of the use of cyanide by the collectors, and the proportions of fish containing cyanide being exported.

I have not discussed issues such as "suitable species" which should or should not be captured and traded. John Brandt and others have created such lists. One should consult the report created by the World Conservation Monitoring Center (in collaboration with the MAC). Their report is downloadable from their web site.

Peter Rubec
 

PeterIMA

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Mike, I don't see how samples submitted voluntarily by an exporter for CDT testing can be analyzed to determine trends or statistics (means, % CN present/absent, SD, SE) about cyanide fishing. Random sampling is needed from export facilities and from other locations.

Peter
 

mkirda

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PeterIMA":2zicaco8 said:
Mike, I don't see how samples submitted voluntarily by an exporter for CDT testing can be analyzed to determine trends or statistics (means, %s CN present/absent, SD, SE) about cyanide fishing. Random sampling is needed from export facilities and from other locations.

Peter

Peter,

They CAN'T, as you, I, and various others have pointed out repeatedly.

There was a famous case where the Tribune used telephone polling to determine who won an election- Their paper the next day declared the wrong candidate the winner. Even though their sample size was adequate for the poll, at the time the majority of the people who had telephones were from the one party whose candidate lost. In other words, the sample was non-random- In other words, it was biased towards a certain result.

Exporters submitting samples to BFAR for 'random' testing is an example of this sort of bias. Exporters will naturally try to choose fish that will not implicate them in the crime that they are committing. Data from such non-random sources should be thrown out lest it taint the rest.

Regards.
Mike Kirda
 

bobimport

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All Cites does is standerdize the paperwork. If not for Cites you would have over 160 different permits to deal with. Their would be no way for the U.S. to tell if a permit was bogus. When you bring something in the U.S. with a cites it tells Fish & Wildlife that it was ok to export from that country. It took 2 years of screwing around to get our goverment to take papaerwork from Haiti due to they did not know who could sighn in Haiti.
 

Kalkbreath

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PeterIMA":2wybzji5 said:
Part of the trouble with Kalk's questions is the fact that he usually asks multiple questions in the same posting, then provides unsubstantiated opinion. He also appears to be deliberately distorting the numbers that I and others have provided. .

Peter Rubec
OK, I will slow down...........Most of the entrees have only three or four fish from any one species........{Like blennys} Thats less then one fish a year {for a five year study} That one algae blenny is representing forty-thousand exported algae blenies for the year. How is it possible for that one fish to reflect accurately the percentage of cyanide collected fish?
 

Kalkbreath

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mkirda":1ckyxo7y said:
Kalkbreath":1ckyxo7y said:
mkirda":1ckyxo7y said:
I have great interest in discovering the truth.
Then tell me what "TRUTHS"you have discovered? Did you find out why Frank released findings with only 1% of the data examined?Did you find out why he had more blue ribbon eels the Mandarins in his study?

Occam's razor, Kalk. The stores he surveyed gave him the numbers, he is only reporting them.

Why did he release only 1%? Pretty simple- He got tired of being pestered by idiots who couldn't get the data fast enough. He explained from the get-go that he has major back problems and couldn't sit for more than about 15 minutes before the pain got too intense. Hell, if you read his posts, he explained all this. If you read my posts, you would find that I've now also repeated this to you now for the THIRD TIME. Do you have ADD? Do you have problems with your memory? I'm serious here- This sort of stuff has been pointed out to you repeatedly, yet you STILL DON'T GET IT. I'm wondering what is wrong with you medically?


Did you learn how ending collection of non suitable species would not result in the increased collection of suitable species .....to replace the unsuitable ones ?

You didn't learn this one either- You expressed an opinion of what would happen, then did no research to find out if ANY scientific work might back you up. Opinion is opinion is opinion. You offer no compelling evidence that this outcome is necessary. But I covered this yesterday. Seriously, what is wrong with your memory?

Did you ever actually look up how many fish are exported from Australia? Like on the Great Barrier Reef website? Or in the Woods report?

Did you ever provide a citation? Did you ever quote that citation to make your point? Why would you ask me to do your work for you? Hell, Kalk, I'd like you to come here and wash my car too, Chicago winters and salt are hell on cars. I don't have the gall to ask you outright. Why would you ask me to do your research for you?

Did you explain how one can test less then one single algae blenny a year and come up with the percentage of cyanide collected Algae blennies exported by the trade?

This is designed not to be able to be answered.
How can you test less than one fish? This is utter nonsense.

If only one fish of a given species gets tested in a year, the data set returned is not very useful. You've ignored my earlier posts on statistical analysis. You really should look into it. Lump all the results from all the years, you have a little bit better data set, but SE will still be quite high.
Maybe usable, maybe not. Depends on what you get and how tolerant you are with regards to SD and SE. Personally, I'd like to see data sets with a high enough N where confidence is in the 90 to 95% range year to year. Is that possible? Well, depends probably on the species and what got sent into the labs year to year. And as neither BFAR nor MAC nor anyone else controls this centrally, we have no control over what gets sent in. That makes that statistical analysis with SD and SE even more important.

Regards.
Mike Kirda
For someone with a thirst for the truth, you seem to have yet to reveiw Peters report .........My numbers are his {look at the report!}
 

mkirda

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Kalkbreath":3egkqd6d said:
How is it possible for that one fish to reflect accurately the percentage of cyanide collected fish?

Kalk,

READ my earlier posts on statistics.
This question has already been answered inside those post(s).
 

mkirda

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Kalkbreath":3fxvu53x said:
you seem to have yet to reveiw Peters report .........My numbers are his {look at the report!}

I have read his report. More importantly, I have understood it.

You do not seem to grasp the significance of it yet.
All you are doing is zeroing in on an area where the numbers given have a higher level of SD and SE due to a lower than ideal sample size.

Anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of statistics understands what a low sample size means. You ain't exactly exposing Nixon here. You are exposing... uh, Math. What is your point exactly? That the sample size is less than ideal? Yeah, that's a given on that particular species. SO WHAT? That the data sample is low for a given species does nothing to invalidate the data that does exist.

Again, if you are so concerned, and you want to actually advance knowledge here, rather than exposing your lack of knowledge in statistics, why don't you contribute something? You want to see the data on algae blennies- I've told you how to go about getting that data. Put up or shut up.
 

PeterIMA

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Kalk, As explained the CDT paper does not present data by species. If you want CDT results for algae blennies please provide me with the scientific name (Genus and species).

If you want information on export numbers (I have no idea where the 40,000 exported # came from) you need to consult other sources for that data concerning algae blennies. There are a lot of species of blennies. I am not sure what species you are refering to.
Peter
 
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How do you keep up with this Peter and Mike, this is so tiring. I got your points years ago, I wish Kalk would so you two can move on to a non cyclical conversation. Around, around and around. I'm gonna get sick.


Interesting Bob, I never knew that about CITES, thanks for the tidbit.
 

Kalkbreath

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PeterIMA":3cgxior0 said:
Kalk, As explained the CDT paper does not present data by species. If you want CDT results for algae blennies please provide me with the scientific name (Genus and species).

If you want information on export numbers (I have no idea where the 40,000 exported # came from) you need to consult other sources for that data concerning algae blennies. There are a lot of species of blennies. I am not sure what species you are refering to.
Peter
What does the chart reflect on the IMA website ........You list thirty species of Blennies.......and 79 fish tested within those thirty species.......thats less then three fish for each of the 30 species. Which means less then one blenny per species was included in the study per year {five years}Most of the fish species in your data have less then ten individual fish included in the data. How is it possible that so few fish can reflect accurately the industry? It may very well be that three fish in your data will be the sole representation for a species that is imported by the tens of thousands,from over one hundred separate islands and a thousand individual collectors. How can three fish reflect all the different collection conditions? if all three fish in your data came from one collector, that one collector would reflect all the collectors that collect that species!
 

Kalkbreath

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GreshamH":1ru0vgwk said:
How do you keep up with this Peter and Mike, this is so tiring. I got your points years ago, I wish Kalk would so you two can move on to a non cyclical conversation. Around, around and around. I'm gonna get sick.


Interesting Bob, I never knew that about CITES, thanks for the tidbit.
Then explain how its possible for this data to reflect anything? You cant, Your an alternative source fish collector{Mexican}Whom benefits from the denigration of the competitions product.......You dont care if the notions about Philippine fish are accurate ......because your bottom line is dependent on the public being fooled into believing your product is better. explain how three tested fish can reflect the tens of thousands exported each year?
 

mkirda

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Kalkbreath":ooy1fq9u said:
explain how three tested fish can reflect the tens of thousands exported each year?

Explain how you can keep asking the same freakin' question over and over again when it has been answered repeatedly, ad nauseum?

Really, Kalk... This is embarrassing. I feel embarrassed for you in the same way I'd feel embarrassed for a spokesperson for the Flat Earth Society having a bout of urinary incontinence during a presentation.
 

clarionreef

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Kalk,
Is Mexico back on?
We haven't seen an import for a whole year and just have netcaught stuff to live on.
It ain't the full variety but at least is comforting to know that we're not adding to the problem while claiming to be interested in solving it.
The real act of reform is to buy netcaught fish, not just talk about it.
Do you know how hard it is to sell netcaught Philippine fish with the bad reputation they have from the conventional supplyline?
Without Mexicos 'alternative', we're stuck with trying to clean up Asian supplies...and are working w/ netcaught exporters from Bali and the Philippines.
'Denigrating Asian fish to boost Mexicos alternative???.... you said.
Is this an example of how you draw conclusions in other matters? You gotta get some new gossip guy.
Steve
 

Kalkbreath

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mkirda":3awmo58l said:
Kalkbreath":3awmo58l said:
explain how three tested fish can reflect the tens of thousands exported each year?

Explain how you can keep asking the same freakin' question over and over again when it has been answered repeatedly, ad nauseum?

Really, Kalk... This is embarrassing. I feel embarrassed for you in the same way I'd feel embarrassed for a spokesperson for the Flat Earth Society having a bout of urinary incontinence during a presentation.
Did you explain the math behind three fish being tested every five years and how these three fish wold reflect the average? I missed it ....lets have a loooksy.......... http://www.marine.org/Content/CDT/imgCDT/Slide17.html
 

Kalkbreath

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cortez marine":1ukyunx1 said:
Kalk,
Is Mexico back on?
We haven't seen an import for a whole year and just have netcaught stuff to live on.

Steve
Gee....... The "Brothers" have mexicanfish .......I can tell where the fish are from by the accent the fish have.......even underwater :wink:
Steve":1ukyunx1 said:
It ain't the full variety but at least is comforting to know that we're not adding to the problem while claiming to be interested in solving it.
The real act of reform is to buy netcaught fish, not just talk about it.
Even by Peters data.....70 percent of the fish coming out of PI ARE netcaught! And More then likely 80% to 90% are clean fish. Peters study found Blennies ,gobies , damsels , clownfish and such {which these species make up 75%of the total fish} ....... to have less then 15 percent cyanide present durig the last three years of his data...................1998 1999 2000. That means with anti cyanide movement in PI at an all time high.........we could suspect even greater then 85% cean fish comming out of PI today in 2004
:wink: :wink:
 

Kalkbreath

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Fifteen damsels of any one type..... over five years? Let sea.......about one million blue damsels were exported during the same time as this took place.What are the chances those five damsels represent the other 1,000,000.? And how bout this next time let me choose the five............ instead of Peter ?
 

hdtran

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dizzy

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hdtran":tjffazls said:
http://www.marine.org/Content/CDT/imgCDT/slide17.html and http://www.marine.org/Content/CDT/imgCDT/slide18.html,
Thanks!
Recloaking,

Hy,
Just a couple of things that seem odd about the numbers.
Numbers indicate positive to cyanide
dottyback 16%
damsel 19%
blenny 13%
scorpionfish 29%
puffers 33%

It just seems to me that fish that tend to run into the coral and hide would have a higher cyanide positive than clumsy slow swimming fish like puffers and lions. I thought cyanide was expensive so why would they waste so much on fish that are easily caught without it? I believe this data would have old Columbo scratching his head. BTW I can easily catch puffers by hand when selling them. Prolly could lions too, but haven't gotten up the nerve to try it yet. :wink:
 

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